In 2000, according the IDC, approximately 101.4 million desktop
PCs were shipped, generating $141 billion in revenues.
Many new consumers were attracted by low prices, higher
capabilities, and stylish colorful designs. During the same period,
a total of 26 million notebook computers, valued at $57.7
billion, were shipped worldwide, based on IDC research.
Additionally, most PC vendors support at least one wireless protocol
and many offer services to facilitate the transition to a
wireless computing environment. It is projected by many leading market research firms that within the next two to three
years, the desktop PC market will decline in favor of wirelessenabled
portable PCs, handheld Pocket PCs, and other devices.
Wireless phones, PDAs, pagers, and modems are expected
to surpass PCs as the most popular Internet access devices.
Shipments of Wireless Internet devices will sustain doubleand
triple-digit growth over the next few years. Mobile electronics
sales may rise to $10.5 million in 2001, as consumers
continue to enjoy the ease with which they can access information
and entertainment and stay in touch with friends and
family. Wireless phones maintain the largest share of that category,
with sales forecast at $3.7 billion in 2001, a 16 percent
increase over 2000, according to the Consumer Electronics
Association (CEA). While the PDA market in the United States
continue to be strong, the Yankee Group projects 13 million to
be sold in 2001, growing to over 26 million in 2003.
Approximately 11 percent of PDAs had Internet access, while
Jupiter projects that the number of U.S. PDA users interacting
with Web data and content will approach 14 million by 2005.
Major consensus holds that within the next three to five
years, the majority of devices that tap into the Internet for data
will not be wired personal computers, but rather a mix of handheld
devices—including cellular phones, PDAs, pagers, and
Pocket PCs. Research firm IDC projects that the worldwide
market for these devices will grow to over 67 million units sold
and $18.1 billion in revenues by 2005. Many of these devices
shall also offer to the consumer new and integrated features
and functions such as cameras and music players, which will
make it more convenient for consumers to carry only a single
device. Many of these devices will take on new form factors—
designs which look less like a phone. These new devices will be
designed to make viewing and entering information easier.
This same period will also witness the emergence of
human-to-machine and (though still embryonic), machine-tomachine
communications, provided by embedded wireless
communication links for data exchange. This will improve work
flow for the business user and create new opportunities for
companies. This trend accelerated in Europe and Japan.
Examples of human-to-machine communications via wireless
networks already exist, allowing people to access content and
applications from network servers. One example of machineto-
machine communications is vending machines. A wireless
device embedded in the machine communicates with a central
computer that keeps track of how many soft drinks or other
items are left; it lets suppliers know when the vending machine
needs to be restocked. The device may also notify the central
computer when the vending machine is in need of repairs.
These devices can be attached to home appliances such as
refrigerators, air conditioners, and security systems to control
lights, activate alarms, and provide climate control. Other
embedded devices will monitor environmental factors like carbon
monoxide levels. In the vehicular environment, these
devices will provide navigation aids and also work as security
and theft-prevention devices. Referred to commonly as telematics,
which is the blending of computing and wireless
telecommunication systems, which creates useful applications
for automobiles and trucks. Telematics systems often use global
positions systems (GPS) or cell-based technologies to facilitate
location-based services such as roadside assistance offered
by companies such as GM’s OnStar. For telematics to become
successful and widely accepted, car manufacturers have to
agree on a standard for hardware and operating system, otherwise
companies have to build specific versions of their applications
for each auto manufacturer, resulting in a segmented
industry.
In the United States alone, there are over 210 million
existing cars and sales of new cars are about 17 million per
year. Worldwide annual sales of new cars are over 50 million.
According to the Yankee Group, 50 percent of new cars and 90
percent of highend vehicles will have telematics to keep users
connected while in the car in 2006, which equates to a market
over $25 billion. Furthermore, on the enterprise side,
there are over 40 million fleet vehicles in the United States
alone, which includes trucking, delivery, and service vehicles.
We believe that in the not-to-distant future, connectivity with
the Internet for many consumers will be via wireless device
and not home PC.
The U.S. mobile phone market is expanding with an additional
11 percent of households expected to purchase a wireless
handheld device in 2002, according to a survey conducted
by Takar Nelson Sofres Intersearch. We find that over 40 percent
of Nextel’s subscriber base has data-capable handsets and
more than half of Sprint PCS subscribers have data phones.
These run text-based microbrowsers that can only surf limited
numbers of Web sites, but that number is growing. Using push
technology, it will be possible for sites to alert users of downloadable
content, based on customized settings. These early
trailblazers will fundamentally change Internet usage patterns
from one or two long sessions a day on an office or home PC
to dozens of low-intensity sessions a day for specific Web clips
or data points. (Figure 3-6 shows projected U.S. data-only
service growth, while Table 3-5 shows worldwide handheld
shipments.) 116